IPO GMPs: Fractal Analytics IPO vs Aye Finance IPO signal muted interest

After a brief lull in the primary market, several initial public offerings are set to open in the coming months. Fractal Analytics IPO and Aye Finance IPO opened for bidding today, though interest in both offerings appears subdued.

Market analysts continue to hold a structurally negative outlook on the IPO market for 2026. They said investors have shown reduced tolerance for indiscipline, with aggressive exit driven IPOs and private equity dumping losing acceptance. Analysts noted that losses suffered by retail and institutional investors in the previous cycle have changed market behaviour.

"SME IPOs, in particular, will struggle badly this year many simply won’t survive sustained scrutiny. On the main board, issuers will face far tougher questions on business quality, cash flows, and valuation discipline. Pricing will be far more grounded than what we saw in recent years.

2026 is a year of consolidation, not celebration. Well-run companies with credible growth and sensible pricing will still get capital. Everything else risks falling off a cliff," said Mohit Gulati, CIO and managing partner of ITI Growth Opportunities Fund.

Grey market premium data reflected weak sentiment, particularly for Aye Finance.

Aye Finance IPO GMP today stood at ₹0, indicating that shares were trading at their issue price of ₹129 with no premium or discount in the grey market, according to investorgain.com.

Based on grey market activity over the past week, the GMP trend has weakened further. Experts said the minimum GMP is ₹0.00, while the maximum is ₹5.

The ₹1,010 crore issue includes a fresh equity issue of ₹710 crore and an offer for sale of ₹300 crore by existing investors, including Alpha Wave India, MAJ Invest Financial Inclusion Fund, CapitalG, LGT Capital, and Vikram Jetley.

Aye Finance IPO price band has been fixed at ₹122 to ₹129 per equity share, with a face value of ₹2.

Fractal Analytics IPO showed relatively stronger grey market traction. Its GMP was ₹18.

Considering the upper end of the price band and the current grey market premium, the estimated listing price of Fractal Analytics shares was indicated at ₹918 per share, about 2 percent above the issue price of ₹900.

However, grey market trends over the past seven sessions indicate a downward movement. Experts said the minimum GMP recorded was ₹13, while the maximum observed was ₹180.

The Fractal Analytics IPO is valued at ₹2,834 crore. It comprises a fresh issue worth ₹1,023.5 crore and an offer for sale component of ₹1,810.4 crore.

Fractal Analytics IPO opens for subscription on Monday, February 9, and closes on Wednesday, February 11. The price band has been fixed at ₹857 to ₹900 per equity share, with a face value of Re 1.