If the firms fail to reveal their stock, the government may impose stock restrictions on the sugar trade by today

If all firms fail to disclose their inventory by October 17th, the Central government may consider placing stock limitations on the sugar trade, according to a report from Business Standard.

Read more: Up to March 31, 2024, parboiled rice will be subject to a 20% export tax

Concerned about the effects of the weakest monsoon in five years on the sugarcane crops in the major producing states of Maharashtra and Karnataka, India may switch sugar exports from the ‘restricted' category to the 'prohibited' category for the entire 2023–24 (October–September) season, according to two government officials.

Currently, sugar mills are eligible to apply for an export quota under the restricted category; however, switching to the forbidden category would result in an export prohibition in every aspect.

El Nino's effect on Sugar Production

According to one of the officials, El Nino's effects on the monsoon rain in August are projected to cause a decrease in sugar production to 30 million tonnes (mt) in the 2023–24 sugar season, compared to domestic consumption of 27.5–28 mt.

However, it is projected that El Nino would intensify through 2023–2024, which might worsen the dry conditions throughout the following sugar season. The official said that this might result in a further reduction in sugar production for the 2024–2025 seasons.

August was the driest month in more than a century due to the El Nino weather trend. The lowest monthly rainfall since 1901 was 161.7 millimeters.

What is El Nino?

El Nino, as it is widely known, describes an unusual warming of the surface waters in the Pacific Ocean's equatorial region. It has been known for reducing monsoon rains. La Nina, the opposite phase that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the same area fall abnormally, is believed to promote rainfall over India.

Local sugar mills exported 6.2 million tonnes of sugar

India implemented export curbs in October of last year and adopted a mill-wise quota system, overtaking Brazil to become the world's top producer and second-largest exporter of sugar in the 2021–22 seasons. Local sugar mills exported 6.2 million tonnes of sugar by the conclusion of the 2022–2023 harvest years.

The government will reassess its sugar export policy, which is now in the restricted category, in October after state cane commissioners provide their harvest estimate for the 2023–24 seasons, according to a Mint story from August 29.

After diverting 4.3 mt of the commodity for ethanol production, India is predicted to have produced 32.7-32.8 mt of sugar in the 2022–23 seasons, ending the season with 5.5–6 mt in inventories.

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