Moody's confirms India's sovereign credit ratings and maintains a stable outlook

Major rating agency Moody's has maintained both its BAA3 grade for India and its'stable' outlook for the Indian economy. The decline in political and civil society protest, as well as the rise in internal political risk, are factors in the rating agency's decision to assign a Baa3 and a stable outlook.

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The affirmation and stable outlook are based on Moody's assessment that India's economy is expected to sustain a strong growth rate relative to global norms, notwithstanding a decrease in potential growth over the preceding 7-10 years.

According to the announcement made by Shaktikanta Das, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), it is anticipated that the Indian economy will experience a growth rate of 6.5 percent during the financial year 2023-24. This statement was made in connection with the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on August 10.

According to figures released by the National Statistical Office, India experienced a 6.1% increase in its gross domestic product (GDP) during the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022-23. This growth rate represents a notable improvement compared to the 4.4% growth observed in the preceding October-December quarter. The financial market had anticipated a 5.5 percent expansion in the fourth quarter.

The economy's growth rate for the fiscal year 2022-23 was recorded at 7.2 percent, surpassing the central bank's projected forecast of 7 percent. Nevertheless, the rate of expansion showed a decrease in comparison to the 9.1 percent registered in the fiscal year 2022.

According to Moody, the financial sector of the country is seeing ongoing improvement, which has resulted in a reduction of the economic and contingent liability concerns that were earlier causing a decline in rating.

In the preceding year, S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed India's long-term sovereign rating of 'BBB-' and short-term rating of A-3, with a stable outlook. This affirmation was based on the recognition of robust economic fundamentals that will serve as a foundation for growth in the forthcoming 2-3 years.

The agency provided an explanation on the sovereign credit ratings of India, emphasising that these ratings are primarily influenced by the country's vibrant and rapidly expanding economy, robust external financial position, and the presence of democratic institutions that contribute to policy predictability and consensus-building.