How big electoral gamble is income tax exemption? Impact on Delhi elections, understand whole thing

Some provisions of the general budget presented just four days before the Delhi assembly elections are being seen as an attempt to woo the voters. The most discussed is the announcement of exempting those earning up to Rs 12 lakh annually from income tax. It is being called a masterstroke. If we look at the speeches of the top BJP leaders in the election rallies, it seems that many other provisions of the budget have also been decided keeping the Delhi elections in mind.

Speeches of the top BJP leaders in the election rallies

They say that Prime Minister Modi has made the people from these areas settled in Delhi happy by giving projects worth crores for Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. They are taking the names of Purvanchalis and the middle class together.The provisions of the general budget presented before the Delhi assembly elections are being seen as an attempt to woo the electoral voters. These include the income tax free slab which will benefit the large middle class of Delhi.

Budget announcements and election promises: The speeches of the Prime Minister himself indicate that he is taking the budget announcements as relief and welfare promises. Addressing his last rally in the Delhi elections, he mentioned the decision to make annual income up to Rs 12 lakh tax free along with BJP's promise to send Rs 2500 every month directly to the accounts of women.

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Middle class in Delhi

If the income of the people of Delhi is analyzed, then this belief is strengthened that the Modi government has played this gamble wisely. The average annual income here is 4 lakh 61 thousand, which is two and a half times more than the national average income. It is also worth noting that 85% of the workers in Delhi are in the service sector.

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The question arises that how big is this middle class? If we look at a survey, then 72% of the people of the capital consider themselves a part of the middle class. Out of these, 44% think that they belong to the lower middle class. In other words, only 28% people feel that they belong to the upper middle class.

Tax slab and identity

It is clear that this tax slab can create a category, which includes a large part of Delhi's voters. A look at the speeches of Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Shah also makes it clear that they want to include those who get tax relief in the category of beneficiaries. The question is whether these people coming in a tax slab also create an identity as voters and will they vote on the basis of this identity?

No lump sum vote

This may seem easy at first glance, but it is not so. People's identity is not determined only by a particular category of income. If this were so, BJP would not talk about Purvanchal identity.

This means that some people may be inspired to vote for BJP by being influenced by tax relief, but it is difficult to estimate how many people they will have. It would not be right to believe that all the people who benefit from tax exemption will vote unitedly.

Voting Behavior

Statistics show that despite the free electricity, water and free bus service for women provided by the Aam Aadmi Party, BJP got 38% votes in the 2020 Delhi Assembly elections. This was more than the earlier percentage. This means that it is not necessary that people vote in favor of getting free facilities. Aam Aadmi Party could not make a dent in BJP's vote bank. The only reason for BJP not getting seats can be that the third party i.e. Congress was almost out of the fray that time.

Other election issues

If we put aside the matter of considering tax relief as a game changer, then we have to understand other issues affecting the elections. BJP is raising the issue of Delhi riots and is especially targeting Congress. It also attacks Aam Aadmi Party, but it is not easy to corner it on such an issue. Aam Aadmi Party is also inclined towards the ideology of Hindutva. Because of this, there is a high possibility of minorities going towards Congress.

Lack of time

Overall, the truth is that after the budget provisions have been revealed, there has not been enough time to understand its possible impact on the voters. This impact will now be seen in concrete form only in the election results.

At present, it can definitely be said that even though BJP is thinking of ensuring its victory through this, the political opinion of a large section of voters does not change at the last moment due to such steps.