In January–March, India's current account balance presumably turned positive, marking the first quarterly surplus.
<p>An increase in services<br />
exports and a decline in the trade deficit led to a positive current account<br />
balance for India in the first quarter of 2019, according to a survey by<br />
Reuters.</p>
<p>In the final quarter of<br />
the 2022/23 fiscal year, the current account balance is projected to have<br />
posted a surplus of $3.3 billion, or 0.4% of gross domestic product (GDP),<br />
according to the latest survey of 22 economists.Read also this: India is APAC’s fastest-growing Economy, according to S&P</p>
<p>That would represent a<br />
substantial improvement over the previous quarter’s deficit of $18.2 billion,<br />
or 2.2% of GDP. From a deficit of $5.0 billion to a surplus of $7.8 billion,<br />
forecasts varied widely.</p>
<p>While we anticipate the<br />
merchandise trade deficit to shrink due to easing global commodity prices, the<br />
invisible trade balance should remain stable at the same level as the<br />
previous quarter due to an increase in services exports, according to Upasana<br />
Chachra, the chief India economist at Morgan</p>
12:12 PM Jun 27, 2023 IST
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mediology
An increase in services
exports and a decline in the trade deficit led to a positive current account
balance for India in the first quarter of 2019, according to a survey by
Reuters.
In the final quarter of
the 2022/23 fiscal year, the current account balance is projected to have
posted a surplus of $3.3 billion, or 0.4% of gross domestic product (GDP),
according to the latest survey of 22 economists.
Read also this: India is APAC’s fastest-growing Economy, according to S&P
That would represent a
substantial improvement over the previous quarter’s deficit of $18.2 billion,
or 2.2% of GDP. From a deficit of $5.0 billion to a surplus of $7.8 billion,
forecasts varied widely.
While we anticipate the
merchandise trade deficit to shrink due to easing global commodity prices, the
invisible trade balance should remain stable at the same level as the
previous quarter due to an increase in services exports, according to Upasana
Chachra, the chief India economist at Morgan Stanley.
On the capital account
front, we anticipate a slowing of foreign transfers. Regarding the overall
(balance of payments), we expect the surplus to remain essentially stable,
similar to the levels of the preceding quarters.
The balance of payments
was predicted to be in surplus by $9.8 billion last quarter, compared to $11.1
billion in the previous three-month period, according to a survey.
A different Reuter survey conducted last week predicted that the current account deficit (CAD)
would average -1.5% of GDP this fiscal year and -1.8% next year, compared to
-2.0% in the fiscal year that just concluded.
Prasenjit K. Basu,
chief economist at ICICI Securities, wrote, “As oil prices fall, the trade
deficit is expected to fall, causing a further reduction of the CAD.”
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