Houthis Issue Threat; Oil and Gas Crisis Set to Escalate in Europe

The ongoing conflict between Iran on one side, and the US and Israel on the other, has reached a critical juncture where the entire global economy hangs in the balance. Amidst reports that the 'Strait of Hormuz' in the Gulf region has already been blocked, Houthi rebels in Yemen have now issued a threat to block the 'Bab al-Mandeb' Strait as well.

As the conflict enters its third week, the Yemen-based Houthi rebels have broken their silence. This Iran-backed militant group has stated that they are prepared to launch retaliatory strikes at any moment.

Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi announced that his forces have their "finger on the trigger" and will intervene should the conflict escalate. Experts believe this move is part of Iran's "three-phase strategy."

What Are the Three Phases?

The first phase involves blocking the Strait of Hormuz—a step that has reportedly already been executed. The second phase entails engaging Israel on the Lebanese and Gazan fronts, while the third phase involves blocking Bab al-Mandeb through the Houthis.

Why Is Bab al-Mandeb Important?

Bab al-Mandeb—meaning the "Gate of Tears"—is one of the world's most critical maritime routes. It separates Yemen from Djibouti and Eritrea (located in the Horn of Africa). It connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Every vessel engaged in trade between Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal must pass through this 29-kilometer-wide strait. 30% of the World's Seaborne Oil Passes Through Bab al-Mandeb

Approximately 30% of the world's seaborne oil traverses these two routes. Bab al-Mandeb alone sees the passage of 8.8 million barrels of oil daily. Crude oil prices—already hovering near the $100 mark—could spiral out of control. Supplies of electronics, machinery, and grain traveling from Asia to Europe would come to a halt.

Israel's New Gambit

Amidst this tension, Israel has also shifted its strategy. Israel has recognized Somaliland (a breakaway region of Somalia) and is planning to establish a military base there. The objective is to maintain direct surveillance over the Houthis and to bolster its own position within the Red Sea. Consequently, there is now a looming risk that the geographical scope of the conflict could expand to encompass Africa.

Apprehension of the Greatest Maritime Crisis in History

Iran's "Axis of Resistance"—comprising Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis—now appears to be mobilizing in concert. If Bab al-Mandeb were to be blockaded, the world could face the most severe maritime crisis in modern history.