US Election 2024: What a Trump or Harris Presidency Could Mean for India

US Election 2024: As the US Presidential Election unfolds, the race between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is getting closer. As of November 5, Trump is projected to win key states like Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, South Carolina, and Florida, while Harris has captured states such as Vermont, Massachusetts, and Maryland. However, many battleground states are still too close to call, and the outcome of the election remains uncertain.

For India, the results of the US election are being closely watched. A change in leadership could have significant effects on India-US relations in areas like defense, trade, and geopolitics. The relationship between the two countries is important, especially with rising challenges in global politics, including China's growing influence, the situation in West Asia, and Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine. Here’s a look at what each candidate could mean for India.

Donald Trump: The Republican Nominee and His Impact on India

Donald Trump, who previously served as President from 2017 to 2021, is seeking a return to the White House. During his first term, India worked closely with Trump, and relations between the US and India were strengthened, particularly in defense and regional security. The two countries signed key defense agreements, and Trump’s administration worked closely with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

In September 2019, Trump hosted Modi at the "Howdy Modi!" event in Houston, attended by 50,000 people. A year later, Modi welcomed Trump in Gujarat for a massive event with over 120,000 attendees. Despite losing the 2020 election to Joe Biden, Trump remains a key figure in US politics, and his policies continue to shape the debate.

Trump’s policies are expected to favor India in some areas, particularly his anti-China stance. India shares common concerns with the US regarding China’s rising influence in Asia, and Trump’s strong position against China could align well with India’s interests. Additionally, Trump has voiced support for Russia, which could benefit India’s strategic partnerships in certain regions.

However, Trump’s protectionist "America First" approach to trade could pose challenges for India. He has criticized India for its import tariffs, calling it an “abuser” of trade practices. Trump has also suggested implementing "reciprocal trade" policies, which could lead to changes in trade agreements between the two countries, potentially making them more difficult for India to navigate.

In terms of defense and counter-terrorism, Trump is likely to continue strengthening the US-India partnership, particularly in areas like countering terrorism and ensuring security in the Indo-Pacific region.

Kamala Harris: The Democratic Nominee and Her Indian Heritage

Kamala Harris, the current Vice President, is the first woman and the first person of South Asian descent to accept a major US party’s presidential nomination. Harris’s mother, Shyamala Gopalan, was born in Chennai, India, and moved to the United States. If elected, Harris’ Indian roots could have a subtle but significant impact on her approach to India.

Harris, who is 60 years old, has had a distinguished career, becoming the first woman of color to hold the office of Vice President. She is expected to continue many of the policies that were established under President Joe Biden, including a strong stance against Russia’s actions in Ukraine and efforts to reduce China’s influence in Asia. These positions align with India’s strategic goals, particularly in the context of security and defense.

However, Harris does not share the same personal rapport with Prime Minister Modi as Trump does. As a senator, she was critical of Modi’s decision in 2019 to revoke Article 370, which removed Jammu and Kashmir's special status. This point of contention could affect the personal relationship between Harris and Modi if she becomes president.

Despite this, analysts suggest that a Harris administration would likely maintain strong US-India ties, particularly in trade and defense. Harris is expected to focus on strengthening economic resilience, supporting domestic manufacturing, and continuing efforts to combat China's growing influence, which resonates with India’s interests.

Comparing the Two: Trump vs. Harris for India

While both Trump and Harris have strong positions on issues important to India, there are differences in their approaches. According to a report by Nomura, analysts believe that India could benefit more from a Trump presidency, despite possible friction in bilateral trade. Trump’s policies could lead to supply chain benefits for India, as well as economic advantages from lower commodity prices and shifts in global supply chains.

On the other hand, Harris’ administration is expected to prioritize economic stability and resilience, continuing policies that focus on domestic growth in the US. This could benefit India as well, but her stance on trade, particularly with China, might lead to more cautious economic interactions compared to Trump’s more aggressive trade policies.

India's Position: A Strong Partnership with Any US President

India’s Foreign Minister, S. Jaishankar, has expressed confidence that India will be able to work with whichever candidate becomes the US President. He stated in August that India has always been able to work with the US administration, regardless of who holds the office. “We have every confidence that we will be able to work with the president of the United States, whoever he or she will be,” Jaishankar said.

Whether it is Trump or Harris, the US-India relationship is expected to remain strong, with both candidates sharing common interests in areas like defense, counter-terrorism, and regional security. The difference will lie in how these interests are pursued and the policies each president chooses to implement.

SUMMARY

The article discusses the ongoing 2024 US Presidential Election and how the outcome might affect India. As of November 5, Republican Donald Trump has won states like Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida, while Democrat Kamala Harris has secured states like Vermont and Maryland. However, many important states are still undecided.

India is closely watching the election because the new US President could impact India-US relations in areas like defense, trade, and global politics. Trump and Harris have different approaches to these issues. Trump, who served as president from 2017 to 2021, is seen as favorable for India due to his strong anti-China stance, support for defense agreements, and focus on counter-terrorism. However, his "America First" trade policies could lead to challenges in trade relations with India.

Kamala Harris, the current Vice President, has Indian roots, as her mother was from Chennai. She is expected to continue many of the trade policies from the Biden administration and focus on economic stability and countering China. While she may maintain good ties with India, her relationship with Prime Minister Modi isn’t as strong as Trump’s, especially over issues like the revocation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir.

Overall, both Trump and Harris could maintain strong US-India relations, but their approaches to trade, defense, and geopolitics may differ. India is confident it will be able to work with whichever candidate wins the election.