After Khamenei, Now Larijani Is Gone... U.S. Could Face Trouble Despite the Killings—Explained

Seventeen days after the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Israel has also killed Ali Larijani, the head of the Supreme National Security Council. Acting on intelligence, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed Larijani via an airstrike at his daughter's residence. Larijani was considered Iran's second most powerful leader; he was a close confidant of Khamenei and was overseeing military coordination efforts.

While Israel and the U.S. have hailed this as a major wartime achievement, it could potentially backfire on the United States.

Israel is touting Larijani's assassination—coming on the heels of Khamenei's death—as a significant achievement. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself held a press conference to make bold claims regarding the operation; however, questions are now being raised: Will this truly inflict a detrimental blow to Iran? Or could the assassination of these high-ranking leaders actually end up benefiting Iran?

Iranian Leaders Assassinated So Far

On the very first day of the war, Israel and the U.S. killed Iran's second Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, IRGC Commander Mohammad Pakpour, Defense Advisor Ali Shamkhani, and Military Chief Abdul Mousavi. Additionally, the strikes resulted in the deaths of Khamenei's Military Secretary, Mohammad Shirazi, and the Chief of Military Intelligence, Saleh Asadi.

Furthermore, during the course of the conflict, two of Iran's Defense Ministers—Aziz Nasirzadeh and Majid Ibn al-Reza—have been assassinated. Now, Israel has killed Ali Larijani. Larijani served as the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

Why Might This Prove Advantageous for Iran Despite the Setback?

While the assassination of top leaders undoubtedly constitutes a blow to Iran, it does not appear to yield any significant benefit for the United States or Israel. On the whole, the elimination of key leaders may ultimately prove advantageous for the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. How? Let us understand this through four key points:

> Iran already operates under a "four-successor" formula—meaning there are four designated successors for every official position. This system was approved by the senior Khamenei. According to *The New York Times*, even if Israel and the U.S. attempt to spin the assassination of top leaders as a victory for their side, the Iranian government is not on the verge of collapse. This process may, in fact, prolong the conflict—precisely what Iran desires.

> Israel and the U.S. possess limited intelligence regarding the individuals being appointed as successors following the assassination of top leaders. This presents two distinct disadvantages: First, it makes it difficult to discern Iran's future strategic direction. Second, engaging in diplomatic negotiations with these new leaders is challenging, as they tend to be even more hardline and radical than their predecessors.

> According to Danny Citrinowicz, the former head of the Iran branch within Israeli Military Intelligence, there are inherent limits to a strategy of "decapitation." You cannot simply decapitate every Iranian leader. Even if one were to attempt such a feat, it would be a time-consuming process—one that would only serve to deepen the existing animosity. In the times to come, the Iranian people are likely to unleash chaos upon Israel and the U.S. through proxy warfare.

> The assassination of top leaders is generating a wave of international sympathy for Iran. Even within the American media, these actions are now facing criticism. Consequently, the internal protests and demonstrations that had been taking place within Iran have now completely subsided.